January 09, 2020 at 12:37pm | Mac Rogers

A group of economist gathered in DC for the first ever National Association of Realtors or NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit for 2020. The consensus from the group is this "the U.S. economy will continue expanding next year while projecting real estate prices will rise and reiterating that a recession remains unlikely."

These are the numbers that they came up with: 29% probability of a recession. GDP growth of 2% in 2020 & 1.9% in 2021. Unemployment expected at 3.7% in 2020 & 3.9% in 2021.

Now regarding the Fed Funds Rate that everybody watches. 69% of the economist expect no change in 2020 while the rest believes that the FEDs will lower interest rates.

The average annual 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 3.8% and 4.0% are expected for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Annual median home prices are forecasted to increase by 3.6% in 2020 and by 3.5% in 2021. That's right INCREASE!!

NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says this; “Real estate is on firm ground with little chance of price declines. However, in order for the market to be healthier, more supply is needed to assure home prices as well as rents do not consistently outgrow income gains.”

They also forecast rents to increase by 3.8% & 3.6% for 2020 & 2021.

The Castro Valley real estate, the Dublin real estate market, Hayward real estate market and the rest of the east bay area will continue to experience the same conditions as 2019.

So the bottom line is this. No one is projecting or forecasting a housing market crash in 2020. We will continue to see more of what we saw this past 2019. That is there is a shortage of homes in the lower or first time home buyers market and an increasing inventory in the higher end of the market.

For those waiting for a recession before buying a home you need to check out my other video and see that in the last 5 recessions home prices actually went up more than the average. As you keep waiting on the sidelines, prices continue to go up and your buying power continues to go down.

Hope you find this video informative. This is Mac Rogers with Albert Rogers Realty. I will see you at my next open house.


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